Forecasting Projects

In addition to Forecasting support, the Forecasting Office provides project level research to the Long Range Planning Division and the rest fo the Tennessee state govenment.
MPO Travel Demand Modeling Framework Standardization.

Phase 1:  State-of-the-art Literature Review Complete.  On  May 2022, TDOT completed phase 1: State-of-the-art literature review. It presents a roadmap of how TDOT could implement a standard travel demand model program. It also provides a summary of travel demand modeling practices in Tennessee, how several other states have approached model standards, presents a literature review, provides recommendations for a standard TDOT model with descriptions of major model elements, and suggests the next steps that TDOT should take. The study confirms that it would be a good idea to develop standard model guidelines and procedures and recommends that TDOT follow this path. The survey conducted during the study suggests that such a program would be accepted by the MPOs, and that it would be recognized as an improvement to their transportation planning process while reducing their workload. A prototypical model is also outlined in this report. To learn more about the phase 1 study, refer to “Phase I:  State-of-the-art Literature Review” final report.

Modeling Tools

  • Land Use Forecasting Dashboard
    • This online dashboard provides the result in two geographic levels (TAZ and County Level). Results are provided in two maps.  Results are provided for the years 2020 to 2050. Users can select the year using the drop-down button located at the top right of the page. Moreover, if users were interested to observe the socio-economic and demographic information of a specific county, they can select that county from the drop-down button located at the top right of the page.
  • Regional Travel Demand Model
    • Regional Modeling AreasTo find the location of Tennessee regional travel demand modeling areas, please see this Regional Modeling Areas 
  • TDOT Model Approval Certification Policy
    • Model certification is the end product of this model approval process. Certification by TDOT’s Long Range Planning Division means that this office has reviewed all stages of model development and the model that is the result of this process has been approved for use in the MPO Long Range Plan and for air quality analysis.  This procedure will apply to all Tennessee MPOs, recognizing the fact that all MPOs do not have the same resources. This procedure will allow a process whereby TDOT personnel will review MPO models for their accuracy in replicating existing traffic (validation) and to model future traffic. The process will involve clearly understood MPO model documentation which will outline the steps used to create, calibrate, and validate their model and meet the qualifications of an approved or certified MPO model. The updated document can be found here TDOT Model Approval Certification Policy
  • Minimum Travel Demand Model Guidelines for the State of Tennessee
    • To achieve consistency within the state and also ensures the model is defensible if cited in litigation. To further ensure consistency, where MPO models cross state lines this procedure will be applied when TDOT is the lead agency. The review process will be based on the document adopted by the Tennessee Model Users Group, Minimum Travel Demand Model Calibration and Validation Guidelines for State of Tennessee. The updated document can be found here Minimum Travel Demand Model Guidelines for the State of Tennessee.
  • Other products of the Forecasting Office include but are not limited to: